Dalal Street Weekly Wrap: What Moved the Markets & What Lies Ahead (July 14–25, 2025)
Published: July 19, 2025 | Author: Hitender Tanwar
📉 Last Week Recap: July 14–18, 2025
1. Range‑Bound Consolidation
Nifty moved in a tight 276‑point range (~24,918–25,144) and closed the week lower for the third consecutive time, down ~1.14%.
2. Sector Snapshot & Earnings
- Financials underperformed: Axis Bank’s profit fell short due to higher provisions.
- Mixed results: Wipro rose on strong earnings; LTIMindtree and others saw declines.
- JSW Steel: Posted 158% YoY PAT growth; still broader markets lacked momentum.
- Defence stocks: Pulled back after a sharp rally.
3. Global Sentiment & FII Flow
- Positive US retail data supported Asian sentiment on Friday.
- FII outflows continued, and Rupee–Nifty correlation spiked to 0.66.
- Historically, July shows positive bias with average gains of ~2.3%.
🔮 Outlook for the Week Ahead (July 21–25, 2025)
Key Market Triggers
- Major Earnings: Reliance, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank to release Q1 results.
- Global Trade: Tariff-related tensions with US may escalate.
- Technical Levels: Nifty trading below 20-day EMA – possible breakout above 25,200 or breakdown below 24,800.
- Macroeconomic Data: Inflation and trade balance figures due this week.
📊 Bull vs Bear Scenarios
Scenario Trigger Implication
Bullish : Strong Reliance & Bank earnings, FII buying resumes Nifty breaks above 25,200 and targets 25,500+
Bearish : Weak earnings, trade tensions, FII outflows Nifty may dip below 24,800 and test 24,500 levels
Top Stock Ideas This Week
- Buy on dips: JUBLPHARMA, SAIL, AADHARHFC
- Watchlist: Patanjali Foods, GMDC
- Options strategy: Consider 25,000–25,200 put spreads for expiry week
🧭 Final Take
Dalal Street continues its consolidation phase with no clear trend breakout. All eyes are on heavyweight earnings and global trade headlines. If earnings from banks and Reliance surprise on the upside, we may see Nifty regain bullish momentum. Stay alert to 24,800 and 25,200 as key decision zones.
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Prepared by Hitender Tanwar | hitender@gmail.com | +91-9810685229
For more insights, visit hitender.biz
